Chennai South MP Candidates

Suresh Kumar. R

The Constituency

The Lok Sabha constituency Chennai South is one of three constituencies in Chennai, Tamil Nadu. It was formerly known as Madras South. After the recent Delimitation excercise, South Chennai Parliamentary constituency has now six assembly constituencies.

Sholinganallur is a state assembly constituency in Tamil Nadu, India newly formed after constituency delimitation. It is included in the Chennai South parliamentary constituency. Chennai South Lok Sabha constituency comprises of 6 assembly segments. They are, Virugambakkam, Saidapet, Theagaraya Nagar, Mylapore, Velachery and Sholinganallur.

South Chennai

South Chennai is touted as a constituency of Brahmins and Educated voters, but the reality is different. Although their proportion is higher than other constituencies in Tamilnadu, they are still not strong enough to be decisive. The underclass and middle-class voters still hold the key for win here. This time ADMK has field Dr.Jayavardhan son of ex-speaker Jayakumar. DMK has moved its North Chennai MP and party general secretary TKS Ilangovan here. Tall leader of TN BJP Ila. Ganesan is contesting here on behalf of NDA.

ThanthiTV survey shows ADMK 34.2%, DMK 32.4%, NDA 30%. Kumudam shows a slender lead for ADMK with 36.24%, DMK 35.65%, NDA 19.97%. AAP also gets an impressive 2.66% vote share here.

Among Chennai constituencies, ADMK’s field work appears to be working best only in South Chennai. The profile of Jayavardhan is equally appealing to all segments of the society. Ila. Ganesan does not appear to be swinging the Brahmin and educated voter base entirely, as many voters still appear to be backing the ADMK. Hence I am going to go for a win for ADMK with 50 to 70% probability.

Voters Count:

Total: 1,795,404 Male: 900,950 Female: 894,141 Transgender:                                                                                                                                   313

Here is a biopic of the leading candidates in Chennai South / General Elections 2014

1. Dr. Jeyavardan of the AIADMK is a PG medicine student and the son of AIADMK senior leader D Jayakumar. Once a strongman of the party with a huge impact in hits home place of North Madras, Jayakumar has been in the freezer. The candidature of his son was a big surprise; the young man is hardly known in the area, has not played any known role in local communities. He is a resident of San Thome.

2. T K S Elangovan is the sitting MP of Chennai North and is of the DMK party. Being a party spokesman and the organizing secretary of the party, he is seen in print and on TV and in the public space. He has also been active in Parliament and served on a few committees. He is a resident of Royapettah.

3. L. Ganesan is a senior politician and a senior of the BJP party who rose up from the ranks of the RSS, made it to the top of the BJP’s state unit, is credited with sustaining and expanding the party base here and has occupied key posts at his party’s national level. He has been in the public space for a long time. He resides in West Mambalam.

4. R V Ramani of the Congress party has had long stints in his party at the state and national level. A electronics engineer and businessperson, he played various roles in the Congress party in Tamil Nadu and then moved to Delhi; recently part of the Congress’ communications wing. But he has not been seen much in the public space in the city. He resides in Rengarajanpuram, off Kodambakkam.

5. Jahir Hussain is of Aam Admi Party (AAP); he played an active part in the Indian Against Corruption movement, was part of the Anna Hazare movement here and then joined the AAP. He also runs a NGO that helps people who are troubled by bribe demands at government offices. A small businessman he works out of North Madras.

6. Jai Ganesh is of the Lok Satta party, is 29 years old and has been a full time politician after engaging in socio-political activism. He has been Organising Seceretary of the party’s TN unit and lives in Thoraipakkam.

There are a total of 42 candidates in this election here, including those of political parties and independents.

Chennai South MP Candidates List 2014

Prominent Chennai South MP Candidates 
1. Dr. J. Jayavardhan (AIADMK)
2. T.K.S.Elangovan (DMK)
3. La.Ganesan (BJP)
4. Ramani (Congress)

DMK Chief M Karunanidhi addresses at an election campaign rally for Chennai South Lok Sabha constituency DMK candidate TKS Elangovan at MGR Nagar in Chennai on Saturday

Analysis & Predictions for TN LS 2014 Polls

I am a firm believer that sampling vote shares at state level and then extrapolating it to wins for each party – does not work well in the “first past post” Indian system. This post is my attempt to gauge constituency wise mood to arrive at seat predictions for Tamilnadu in the upcoming LS polls 2014; where people get to cast their vote on 24^th April 2014.

Several leading regional media houses have published constituency wise survey results. I am going to triangulate these sources, plus apply my own observation from several field reports to arrive at the predictions.  However this is the best one can do, when he/she doesn’t have access to the primary data to do a formal statistical Meta-Analysis of the results. The sources that I referred to are:-

§  Kumudam surveyed a record 66,100 respondents from all 39 constituencies of Tamilnadu. The demographic breakup was 62% male – 38% female; which is having a larger male skew. Their demographic sample included 11% first time voters, 13% school dropouts, 32.7% graduates+. Again they have a higher skew of graduates. They partnered with Statistics professor from Madras University T. R. Gopalakrishnan.

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§  ThanthiTV surveyed 20,000 respondents from all the constituencies. They have not shared the demographic breakup, however have stated that all the standard precautions in stratification of sample have been taken care. Their partner was Kris info media.

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§  Thuglaq weekly surveyed 10,000 respondents from all 39 constituencies. They did not follow a statistical process, but they use a qualitative methodology to interpret results based on findings from the field. Their results were fairly accurate in the 2011 assembly polls giving it some credence.

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§  Nakkeran magazine also did its predictions – but I summarily discount them as a source – given their political lineation and previous track record of complete failure.

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§  Vikatan has done a survey of 27,000 respondents and given projected state level vote share. However since constituency wise break-up & demographic break-up is not available, I am constrained to not use this as a source. However I am using the field reports filed in Junior Vikatan.

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§  Thanthi TV survey shows ADMK 34.2%, DMK 32.4%, NDA 30%.

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§   Kumudam shows a slender lead for ADMK with 36.24%, DMK 35.65%, NDA 19.97%. AAP also gets an impressive 2.66% vote share here.

2009 MP ELECTION RESULTS

Party	Candidate	Votes
AIADMK	C. Rajendran	308,567
DMK	R. S. Bharathy	275,632
DMDK	V Gopinath	67,291

Chennai South Lok Sabha constituency is composed of the following assembly segments:

S. No	Before 2009	2014-present
1.	Theagaraya Nagar Theagaraya Nagar Triplicane	Virugambakkam
2.	Triplicane Mylapore	Theagaraya Nagar
3.	Mylapore	Saidapet
4.	Saidapet	Mylapore
5.	Alandur	Velachery
6.	Tambaram	Sholinganallur

Tamil Nadu's youngest candidate: a 26-year-old doctor

Chennai: For five years, TKS Elangovan has represented North Chennai in Parliament. This time, the veteran leader of the regional DMK has switched to South Chennai and is taking on a young doctor. Dr Jayavardhan, 26, is the youngest candidate in Tamil Nadu in this election. (Marginal decrease in Independent contestants in Tamil Nadu)

The general practitioner is hoping that his age will appeal to voters cloistered in the IT hub of the city, but his promises are more old-school - in his election meetings, he promises to deliver the freebies - like laptops for students, and mixer-grinders for all families - that helped Jayalalithaa win the state election in 2011. "With the blessings of Amma, I will be able to fulfill all things promised to our voters," he says. (Full Coverage: India Votes 2014)

For Mr. Elangovan, voters have tough questions about the corruption charges that have ringed in his party, mainly over the telecom scam that placed two senior DMK leaders - A Raja and M Kanimozhi - in jail (they are on bail now). As Telecom Minister in 2008, Mr. Raja is accused of bestowing cheap mobile network licenses and airwaves to companies who allegedly bribed him. Mr Elangovan, 59, tells voters "These are manufactured cases, the evidence is already collapsing.

When asked about his very young opponent, the MP retorts, "I am youth. In my mind."

In South Chennai, the slums near the Besant Nagar beach jostle for development with the IT corridors that are seeing the arrival of fancy new multi-national companies. Some parts of the constituency seek basic development - working drains, running water. Others are hungry for new flyovers, advanced infrastructure. The relief map is, at the very least, intriguing and complicated. 

Jaya to Campaign in City from today

 

Chief Minister and AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalithaa is commencing her final leg of campaign for the Lok Sabha elections from today (April 19) in the city.

Chief Minister and AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalithaa is commencing her final leg of campaign for the Lok Sabha elections from today (April 19) in the city. She is scheduled to cover many places and address the public in 15 places. Already, senior Ministers of the party and functionaries have visited the places where Jayalalithaa is scheduled to address the public and made the necessary arrangements.

The AIADMK chief launched her campaign for the crucial 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Kancheepuram, the birthplace of Dravidian stalwart C N Annadurai, on March 3, two days ahead of the notification of the Election Commission and had covered all constituencies in the State till April 17. During her whirlwind election tour across the State, she made it clear that the AIADMK was the only party concerned with the welfare of the Tamils and appealed to the people to cast their votes. 

First Day: Jayalalithaa will commence her campaign in Chennai n.ear MGR statue at Nanganallur for the by-election to Alandur Assembly constituency and will speak at Alandur taluk office at Pazhavanthangal. VNP Venkataraman is contesting as the AIADMK candidate for the by-election. On the same day, the AIADMK supremo is scheduled to canvass votes for the party candidate for Central Chennai constituency — SR Vijayakumar — in four places finishing on Dr Radhakrishnan Road.

Second Day: On April 20, the AIADMK general secretary will be canvassing votes for party candidate in Chennai North Parliamentary constituency. She will address the public at Tiruvotriyur Theradi for T G Venkatesh Babu. She will pass through Royapuram flyover and conclude near Purasawalkam High Road.

Third Day: On the concluding day (April 21), Jayalalithaa will be canvassing votes for the party’s South Chennai candidate J Jayavardhan. She is scheduled to address the public in four places from Kandanchavadi Kaliamman Koil bus stop through Gandhi statue on Marina ending on Muthurangan Road.

Campaigns begin to hot up

Most evident in the campaigns is that of of the AIADMK and DMK parties, as seen in the neighborhoods of Adyar, Mylapore and in Arcot Road. The AIADMK candidate, Dr Jayavardhan has been setting off from his San Thome base to reach the far flung areas one by one. Weekdays in the sun are also sweat-it-out days for the candidate. On Wednesday, April 2 we saw the AIADMK cadres congregate in Adyar to take out a campaign. The party has a local campaign office set up on Kaliamman Koil Road in Virugambakkam.
The DMK candidate, T K S Elangovan has moved out of his rounds of Saidapet where he has had former city Mayor M Subramaniam at hand to guide him through.
On the weekend, Elangovan who resides in Royapettah and is the DMK’s sitting MP of Chennai North did the rounds of K K Nagar and Saligramam and was seen meeting walkers and fitness enthusiasts in local parks like the Sivan Park in K K Nagar.
Little is seen of the BJP campaigning in the eastern neighborhoods of this constituency. The same can be said of the Lok Satta party which also has a man in the fray.
AAP cadres say their candidate will set off once he files his nomination.

Jayalalithaa to campaign in city from April 19

Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa is expected to tour the city as part of the AIADMK party’s election campaign from April 19 onwards. She is expected to address meetings at various places for her party’s candidates. On April 21, she plans to campaign for the Chennai South candidate Dr Jeyavardan who resides in R. A. Puram. The meetings are to be in Perungudi, MGR Nagar and T. Nagar (bus stand) that day.
The man is Dr. Jayavaradan, a medicine student and son of a senior AIADML city leader, D Jayakumar, once a minister and Assembly Speaker who has a house in the Leith Castle area off San Thome High Road. The party’s unit of South Chennai also had its first major inhouse meeting quickly at the Chennai Corporation hall on C P Ramaswamy Road, Alwarpet to plan its Lok Sabha poll campaign for this constituency.
The meeting was attended by the party candidate Jayavaradan and the party’s MLAs who represent the Assembly constituencies under South Chennai. Present at the meeting was Mylapore MLA, R Rajalakshmi and the MLAs of Saidapet and T. Nagar besides others. This stretch of the main road was decorated with flexi banners, flags and buntings of the party and party cadres streamed into the venue for the meeting.
On Sunday morning, the AIADMK teams also did some close campaigning, even  distributing pamphlets to church goes in San Thome.

DMK names T K S Elangovan as its man

The DMK has announced its candidate. Its man is T K S Elangovan who is the sitting MP for Chennai North. He is often seen among the top guns of the party and is also a party spokesperson, thus seen often on TV and quoted in the print media.
It is not clear why this shift was made by the DMK for he has not been seen or worked locally. But then the sitting MP here, the AIADMK’s C Rajendran was only a south suburb resident and hardly known in this zone.
DMK leader drove into the city from the south side after a long tour of the districts, addressing meetings in the Vela-chery-Thoraipakkam, and then in Foreshore Estate and Kapali Thotam before heading for a public meet in T. Nagar.

 

Vaiko campaign

The campaign has slowly hotted up in the constituency as nominations closed on Saturday.
Earlier in the week, MDMK leader Vaiko turned up in Mylapore to support the BJP campaign here – party candidate L. Ganesan. The caravan moved through the inner streets of this neighborhood, for some close campaigning.

 

Lok Satta Party puts up young candidate

29-year-old Jaiganesh is an anti-corruption activist who started his social activities with ‘India Against Corruption’ movement in June 2011. He says he was convinced that “electoral politics has no substitute in eradicating corruption” and entered politics by joining Loksatta Party in Sep 2011.
A BBA graduate, he is now a full timer in politics with the support of his wife. He lives in  Thoraipakkam.
His political experience includes being Youth Wing secretary in Loksatta during 2012-2013. He is currently the Organizational Secretary of this party in Tamil Nadu.

 

AAP, Lok Satta carry out focused campaigns but visibility is still low

Two recent parties in the fray – the Lok Satta Party and the AAP – have been going about their campaigns in some focused manner though it is taking its time to make an impact.
Lok Satta cadres are using various smart communications to keep the media and well wishers posted on their campaigns – bike rallies, street plays and the sort. But their symbol or party name is just not seen anywhere.
AAP made a big splash in Mylapore this past week with a public meeting at a well known space called Mangolai near the Sri Kapali Temple zone. Over 1000 people sat for the meeting; though the dampener was that AAP leader Yogendra Yadav, the star speaker spoke for a very short time and the big audience were disappointed. AAP lost a chance to make some more impact.
But Yadav had more campaign stops that evening and later, attended a dinner at which guests paid Rs.2000 per head – a fund raiser this was. AAP cadres had also spread the towel at the Mylapore public meeting to collect funds from the public.

Campaign comes to a close

Campaigning ended this evening at 6 pm. As it happen in the rest of the state.
On Monday, leaders of the AIADMK and DMK ran a whirlwind tour of the three constituencies of the city ending with large public meetings. On Tuesday afternoon, DMK leader hit a furious campaign pace, making stops in kuppams and interior colonies before heading for a public meeting.
Meanwhile, work has begun at the polling booths to set up the furniture and the spaces in place for polling on April 24. In some venues where polling is to take place, info boards have been erected listing streets and roads where residents of the area need to queue to vote.
One of the leading English newspapers carried a paid feature advertorial featuring the AIADMK candidate of Chennai South. Inserted in other dailies were handbills of other candidates/parties listing promises and making appeals.

Perfect recap

Elections for politicians are like sold out concerts for rock stars. All it takes is a stage and a few thousand fans to bring out the best (and loudest) in them. And staying true to that tradition, all the politicians have well and truly come to the party, this election season in the city. With campaigning for the Lok Sabha polls all but concluded, an eventful month-and-a-half for Chennaiites comes to a close. These are some of the occurrences, which stand out and serve as a perfect recap — just in case you missed all the action.

Corporate appeal

Even as all the AIADMK MP candidates were clad in the customary crisp white shirt-and-dhoti garb, becoming of the quintessential TN politico, Dayanidhi Maran stood apart. Through the bulk of his campaigns, the former telecom minister and the DMK’s Central Chennai candidate stuck to his usual corporate shirt-pant attire and didn’t seem to look out of place. This may have been because he had company for once — almost every member of the Aam Aadmi Party chose not to wear dhotis and stuck to comfort wear like cotton pants and denim.

Talking the walk

With nothing to stop him from walking, AAP’s Central Chennai candidate J Prabhakar — who heads a conglomerate of NGOs — undertook an ambitious padayatra at the beginning of April. Claiming that he would not to return home till campaigning ended on April 22, JP began walking to meet his entire electorate and slept at the homes of volunteers along the way. But the heat and slow pace of walking put paid to the padayatra as he wound it up on April 14 — to take things up a notch and cover more ground, using wheels.

Plenty of parking

Vehicles may cover more ground, but campaigning during your morning walk can also be very beneficial, found the DMK’s South Chennai candidate T K S Elangovan. Doing away with the white clothes for a T-shirt and track pants, Elangovan and his campaign team hit the trail going from park to park in the KK Nagar area, to canvass among walkers and yoga groups. This seemed to work well, as the Chennai heat wasn’t quite as bad at 6 am.

Breaking waves

Another candidate who built a reputation of getting off to an early start every morning is the BJP’s South Chennai candidate L Ganesan. Often starting with the crowing of the rooster, his campaigns were strategically designed to meet people at times when the heat was not oppressive. Even he had to break tradition when he undertook a ‘boat’ canvassing tour — going out into the Bay of Bengal on Modi-themed boats to meet villages of fishermen near Uthandi and other places along the coast.